EGYPT UPDATE – AT 10:01 P.M. ET:  As we anticipate the possibility of a million demonstrators in Egypt on Tuesday, journalistic grown-ups are starting to ask some hard questions about just who's demonstrating, who (if anyone) they represent, and and who will wind up on top?

CAUTION!  Mohamed ElBaradei, the "leading" opposition figure, is finally coming under some deserved scrutiny.  This international swell wasn't even living in Egypt when the protests began.  He rushed home from his plush life in Europe to be with "my people" (choke).  He's made a few appearances on the street.

ElBaradei, let us remember, was head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the main body charged with investigating the Iranian nuclear-weapons program.  But ElBaradei spent a good part of his time defending Iran, playing down its threat...and even opposing sanctions on the Tehran regime.  As soon as he left IAEA, documents he'd ordered suppressed were released, showing far greater danger from Iran than this chap had ever acknowledged.  A weak man who could be swallowed up by more radical elements.

CAUTION:  My rule of thumb in politics:  Anytime they tell you that "the people" are doing something, run in the other direction.  The "people" don't usually do anything, unless they are led.  So be careful about over-the-top descriptions of "mass" demonstrations.  Yes, a million Egyptians may be in the streets tomorrow, but 84 million Egyptians won't be in the streets.  We'd better find out what's behind all this if we don't want to wind up with another Iran.

The Jerusalem Post's correspondent in Egypt filed a report on poor Egyptians that is very telling.  The key quote:

The residents of Nazlet e-Samman were almost unanimous in their support for President Hosni Mubarak, a viewpoint nearly impossible to find downtown.

They said the protesters were upper-class Cairenes who don’t understand the importance of the stability that Mubarak brought to their lives.

“If you hate Mubarak, you’re not Egyptian,” said Fariq, an employee at the Khattab Papyrus Factory, a touristy store that sells papyrus reproductions that stood shuttered and empty on Monday.

He accused Mohamed ElBaradei, a popular opposition figure who lives in Vienna and returned to Egypt on Friday, of not understanding the needs of regular Egyptians.

“If you love my country, why are you not here?” Fariq asked. “Why are you not eating my food, sleeping in my bed, wearing my clothes, breathing my air?”

We need more reporting like this.  It's very easy to wave the "democracy" flag.  It was waved in Germany in 1932 also.  And it was waved in Gaza, leading to a Hamas takeover. 

CAUTION:  Increasingly the Muslim Brotherhood is being described as a moderate organization with limited influence in Egypt.  It is in fact a radical organization with a pro-Nazi past, and has given birth to some of the leaders of Al Qaeda.  Even if it does not represent a majority, it can leverage its power through fear and intimidation...and assassination.  Don't believe the "moderate" label.

COMMENT:  The situation is Egypt is one of the most dangerous we've seen in any part of the world in recent years.  Our own country is led by a weak president with strong leftist and Muslim sympathies.  Every caution light should be on.

January 31, 2011